Modelling the effects of media during an influenza epidemic (BMC Public Health)

Background: Mass media is used to inform individuals regarding diseases within a population. The effects ofmass media during disease outbreaks have been studied in the mathematical modelling literature, byincluding `media functions` that affect transmission rates in mathematical epidemiological models.The choice of function to employ, however, varies, and thus, epidemic outcomes that are important toinform public health may be affected. Methods: We present a survey of the disease modelling literature with the effects of mass media. We present acomparison of the functions employed and compare epidemic results parameterized for an influenzaoutbreak. An agent-based Monte Carlo simulation is created to access variability around key epidemicmeasurements, and a sensitivity analysis is completed in order to gain insight into which modelparameters have the largest influence on epidemic outcomes. Results: Epidemic outcome depends on the media function chosen. Parameters that most influence key epidemicoutcomes are different for each media function. Conclusion: Different functions used to represent the effects of media during an epidemic will affect the outcomesof a disease model, including the variability in key epidemic measurements. Thus, media functionsmay not best represent the effects of media during an epidemic. A new method for modelling theeffects of media needs to be considered.