Sustainability, Vol. 11, Pages 338: Quantifying the Effect of Land Use Change and Climate Variability on Green Water Resources in the Xihe River Basin, Northeast China (Sustainability)

Based on a land use interpretation and distributed hydrological model, soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), this study simulated the hydrological cycle in Xihe River Basin in northern China. In addition, the influence of climate variability and land use change on green water resources in the basin from 1995 to 2015 was analyzed. The results show that (1) The ENS (Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient) and R2 (coefficient of determination) were 0.94 and 0.89, respectively, in the calibration period, and 0.89 and 0.88, respectively, in the validation period. These indicate high simulation accuracy; (2) Changes in green water flow and green water storage due to climate variability accounted for increases of 2.07 mm/a and 1.28 mm/a, respectively. The relative change rates were 0.49% and 0.9%, respectively, and the green water coefficient decreased by 1%; (3) Changes in green water flow and green water storage due to land use change accounted for increases of 69.15 mm and 48.82 mm, respectively. The relative change rates were 16.4% and 37.2%, respectively, and the green water coefficient increased by 10%; (4) Affected by both climate variability and land use change, green water resources increased by 121.3 mm and the green water coefficient increased by 9% in the Xihe River Basin. It is noteworthy that the influence of land use change was greater than that of climate variability.