MyJournals Home  

RSS FeedsEntropy, Vol. 21, Pages 413: Acknowledging Uncertainty in Economic Forecasting. Some Insight from Confidence and Industrial Trend Surveys (Entropy)

 
 

18 april 2019 16:02:25

 
Entropy, Vol. 21, Pages 413: Acknowledging Uncertainty in Economic Forecasting. Some Insight from Confidence and Industrial Trend Surveys (Entropy)
 


The role of uncertainty has become increasingly important in economic forecasting, due to both theoretical and empirical reasons. Although the traditional practice consisted of reporting point predictions without specifying the attached probabilities, uncertainty about the prospects deserves increasing attention, and recent literature has tried to quantify the level of uncertainty perceived by different economic agents, also examining its effects and determinants. In this context, the present paper aims to analyze the uncertainty in economic forecasting, paying attention to qualitative perceptions from confidence and industrial trend surveys and making use of the related ex-ante probabilities. With this objective, two entropy-based measures (Shannon’s and quadratic entropy) are computed, providing significant evidence about the perceived level of uncertainty. Our empirical findings show that survey’s respondents are able to distinguish between current and prospective uncertainty and between general and personal uncertainty. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty negatively affects economic growth.


 
80 viewsCategory: Informatics, Physics
 
Entropy, Vol. 21, Pages 414: Action Recognition Using Single-Pixel Time-of-Flight Detection (Entropy)
Entropy, Vol. 21, Pages 412: Geosystemics View of Earthquakes (Entropy)
 
 
blog comments powered by Disqus


MyJournals.org
The latest issues of all your favorite science journals on one page

Username:
Password:

Register | Retrieve

Search:

Physics


Copyright © 2008 - 2024 Indigonet Services B.V.. Contact: Tim Hulsen. Read here our privacy notice.
Other websites of Indigonet Services B.V.: Nieuws Vacatures News Tweets Nachrichten