Sustainability, Vol. 11, Pages 4766: Analyzing Temporal and Spatial Characteristics and Determinant Factors of Energy-Related CO2 Emissions of Shanghai in China Using High-Resolution Gridded Data (Sustainability)

In this study, we create a high-resolution (1 km x 1 km) carbon emission spatially gridded dataset in Shanghai for 2010 to 2015 to help researchers understand the spatial pattern of urban CO2 emissions and facilitate exploration of their driving forces. First, we conclude that high spatial agglomeration, CO2 emissions centralized along the river and coastline, and a structure with three circular layers are the three notable temporal–spatial characteristics of Shanghai fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Second, we find that large point sources are the leading factors that shaped the temporal–spatial characteristics of Shanghai CO2 emission distributions. The changes of CO2 emissions in each grid during 2010–2015 indicate that the energy-controlling policies of large point emission sources have had positive effects on CO2 reduction since 2012. The changes suggest that targeted policies can have a disproportionate impact on urban emissions. Third, area sources bring more uncertainties to the forecasting of carbon emissions. We use the Geographical Detector method to identify these leading factors that influence CO2 emissions emitted from area sources. We find that Shanghai’s circular layer structure, population density, and population activity intensity are the leading factors. This result implied that urban planning has a large impact on the distribution of urban CO2 emissions. At last, we find that unbalanced development within the city will lead to different leading impact factors for each circular layer. Factors such as urban development intensity, traffic land, and industrial land have stronger power to determine CO2 emissions in the areas outside the Outer Ring, while factors such as population density and population activity intensity have stronger impacts in the other two inner areas. This research demonstrates the potential utility of high-resolution carbon emission data to advance the integration of urban planning for the reduction of urban CO2 emissions and provide information for policymakers to make targeted policies across different areas within the city.