Sustainability, Vol. 12, Pages 2583: Suitable Scale of an Oasis in Different Scenarios in an Arid Region of China: A Case Study of the Ejina Oasis (Sustainability)

The main objective of this work is to calculate the suitable scale of the Ejina Oasis in different scenarios (high-, normal-, and low-flow years), assess the stability of the Ejina Oasis, and, finally, accurately determine if an artificial oasis area and total oasis area need to be reduced or increased. Using the water balance method, we calculated the suitable scale of the artificial Ejina Oasis as 767.80, 624.00, and 451.33 km2 in high-, normal-, and low-flow years, respectively. By utilizing the water-heat balance method combined with an assessment of the present stability of the Ejina Oasis, the results showed that in high-flow years, the suitable scale of the Ejina Oasis is 1174–1762 km2, and the stability index of the current oasis is 0.55. In normal-flow years, the suitable scale of the Ejina Oasis is found to be 915–1373 km2, and the stability index of the current oasis is 0.43. In low-flow years, the suitable scale of the Ejina Oasis is 590–885 km2, and the stability index of the current oasis decreases to 0.27. In order to further improve the stability of oases, it remains necessary to control the scale of oases to cope with water resource shortages that result from water resource instability under climate change. The present study’s findings will enable optimal water-use planning decisions that take social, economic, and ecological issues into account, and provide the foundation for optimal decision-making for regional administrative departments to effectively coordinate regional economic development, farmland protection, environmental protection, and water resource protection.