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17 september 2022 11:43:08

 
IJERPH, Vol. 19, Pages 11732: An Integrated Spatial Autoregressive Model for Analyzing and Simulating Urban Spatial Growth in a Garden City, China (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health)
 


In the past, the research on models related to urban land-use change and prediction was greatly complicated by the high precision of models. When planning some garden cities, we should explore a more applicable, specific, and effective macro approach than the community-level one. In this study, a model consisting of spatial autoregressive (SAR), cellular automata (CA), and Markov chains is constructed. One It can well-consider the spatial autocorrelation and integrate the advantages of CA into a geographical simulation to find the driving forces behind the expansion of a garden city. This framework has been applied to the urban planning and development of Chengdu, China. The research results show that the application of the SAR model shows the development trend in the southeast region and the needs to optimize the central region and protect the western region as an ecological reserve. The descriptive statistics and the spatial autocorrelation of the residuals are reliable. The influence of spatial variables from strong to weak is distance to water, slope, population density, GDP, distance to main roads, distance to railways, and distance to the center of the county (district). Taking 2005 as the initial year, the land-use situation in 2015 was simulated and compared with the actual land-use situation. It seems that the Kappa coefficient of the construction-land simulation is 0.7634, with high accuracy. Therefore, the land use in 2025 and 2035 is further simulated, which provides a reference for garden cities to formulate a reasonable urban space development strategy.


 
104 viewsCategory: Medicine, Pathology, Toxicology
 
IJERPH, Vol. 19, Pages 11739: Can Mobile Payment Increase Household Income and Mitigate the Lower Income Condition Caused by Health Risks? Evidence from Rural China (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health)
IJERPH, Vol. 19, Pages 11741: A Mixed Methods Exploration of the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Food-Related Activities and Diet Quality in People with Parkinson Disease (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health)
 
 
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