MyJournals Home  

RSS FeedsEnergies, Vol. 12, Pages 4439: Applying Artificial Neural Networks to Forecast European Union Allowance Prices: The Effect of Information from Pollutant-Related Sectors (Energies)

 
 

22 november 2019 09:01:06

 
Energies, Vol. 12, Pages 4439: Applying Artificial Neural Networks to Forecast European Union Allowance Prices: The Effect of Information from Pollutant-Related Sectors (Energies)
 




In this paper, we forecast the price of CO2 emission allowances using an artificial intelligence tool: neural networks. We were able to provide confident predictions of several future prices by processing a set of past data. Different model structures were tested. The influence of subjective economic and political decisions on price evolution leads to complex behavior that is hard to forecast. We analyzed correlations with different economic variables related to the price of CO2 emission allowances and found the behavior of two to be similar: electricity prices and iron and steel prices. They, along with CO2 emission allowance prices, were included in the forecasting model in order to verify whether or not this improved forecasting accuracy. Only slight improvements were observed, which proved to be more significant when their respective time series trends or fluctuations were used instead of the original time series. These results show that there is some sort of link between the three variables, suggesting that the price of CO2 emission allowances is closely related to the time evolution of the price of electricity and that of iron and steel, which are very pollutant industrial sectors. This can be regarded as evidence that the CO2 market is working properly.


Del.icio.us Digg Facebook Google StumbleUpon Twitter
 
39 viewsCategory: Biophysics, Biotechnology, Physics
 
Energies, Vol. 12, Pages 4441: A General Approach in Optimization of Heat Exchangers by Bio-Inspired Artificial Intelligence Methods (Energies)
Energies, Vol. 12, Pages 4457: Robust and Fast State Estimation for Poorly-Observable Low Voltage Distribution Networks Based on the Kalman Filter Algorithm (Energies)
 
 
blog comments powered by Disqus


MyJournals.org
The latest issues of all your favorite science journals on one page

Username:
Password:

Register | Retrieve

Search:

Physics

Use these buttons to bookmark us:
Del.icio.us Digg Facebook Google StumbleUpon Twitter


Valid HTML 4.01 Transitional
Copyright © 2008 - 2019 Indigonet Services B.V.. Contact: Tim Hulsen. Read here our privacy notice.
Other websites of Indigonet Services B.V.: Nieuws Vacatures News Tweets Travel Photos Nachrichten Indigonet Finances Leer Mandarijn