Energies, Vol. 12, Pages 4724: Changes in Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Aspirations for Energy Independence: Sectoral Analysis of Uses of Natural Gas in Ukrainian Economy (Energies)

The main objective of the research is to assess the ability of the Ukrainian economy and its individual industries to ensure, in the conditions of economic growth, a stable reduction of natural gas consumption and, consequently, to reduce dependence on its imports. Six types of relationships were identified between the change in sectoral added value and the change in the consumption of certain energy resources, in particular natural gas. The conditions are established under which the growth of sectoral added value is accompanied by a decrease in the consumption of certain energy resources. The index of sectoral efficiency of the use of certain energy resources was proposed and a model of the decomposition of the growth rate of this indicator was constructed. Quantitative indicators of measuring economic barriers on the way to introduction of energy-saving technologies are presented. Conditions under which economic growth is accompanied by a decrease in the level of dependence of the economy on imports of energy resources are modeled. The dynamics of natural gas consumption by sectors of the Ukrainian economy is analyzed. It is proved that reduction of natural gas consumption due to increased energy efficiency occurs mainly in industries with an average value of share of the cost of purchasing this energy in the total operating expenses. An estimation is undertaken of the possibility of achieving independence of the Ukrainian economy from the import of natural gas in different scenarios of changing main parameters that determine the probability of such an achievement.